Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 29.211239 32.470325 36.195005 40.827117 46.522095 53.420407 62.615732
2025-06-15 24.328789 28.383361 33.428883 40.375119 50.061269 63.761010 86.122649
2025-06-22 21.252478 25.648880 31.467078 40.131877 53.561355 75.512389 120.159299
2025-06-29 18.879521 23.329268 29.482285 39.201797 55.597586 86.041784 163.734859
2025-07-06 17.883926 22.662734 29.594445 41.304718 63.203183 111.494469 291.193843
2025-07-13 16.512270 21.252345 28.337574 40.844504 65.967857 129.225852 472.999857
2025-07-20 15.546896 20.305003 27.624211 41.115289 70.300402 155.790808 1009.765210
2025-07-27 14.757692 19.525350 27.050095 41.484416 75.036104 190.763284 4120.993990
2025-08-03 14.003188 18.718434 26.315503 41.375189 78.617528 228.960659 NaN
2025-08-10 13.276576 17.888423 25.439137 40.802863 80.792412 267.280059 NaN
2025-08-17 12.739068 17.313882 24.937895 40.913506 85.060717 333.856073 NaN
2025-08-24 12.206349 16.704671 24.308327 40.627900 88.071592 409.008724 NaN
2025-08-31 11.681273 16.080136 23.606522 40.100540 90.287321 499.458817 NaN
2025-09-07 11.213448 15.521298 22.976888 39.644990 92.695394 627.254608 NaN
2025-09-14 10.813189 15.050621 22.470129 39.401814 95.931125 839.154165 NaN
2025-09-21 10.371830 14.484674 21.736894 38.496253 96.158590 1019.206662 NaN
2025-09-28 10.285205 14.517761 22.151757 40.534831 110.650069 3177.527650 NaN
2025-10-05 9.948395 14.096720 21.640813 40.088009 113.343156 6688.892343 NaN
2025-10-12 9.705185 13.826064 21.407034 40.350318 120.144960 239216.908575 NaN
2025-10-19 9.487210 13.587635 21.218121 40.708067 128.081659 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.242723 13.289285 20.883630 40.602133 133.384211 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.975897 12.938646 20.417178 40.047199 135.510702 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 8.780163 12.707503 20.184649 40.154479 142.686106 NaN NaN